Archive for Stock Market

Tracking Poll Update

Hey, Barack Obama is right: the Dow really is a “tracking poll”, full of “gyrations”. Why, earlier this morning, it was up almost a hundred points.

Now it’s down about sixty.

What, did Timothy Geithner say something?

I’m not sure a steady daily fall in the market indexes qualifies as “gyrations”, but the tumbling stockbrokers hurtling to their deaths out of office windows might be so described.

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When B. H. Obama Talks…

Plug your ears:

“[W]hat you’re now seeing is profit and earning ratios [sic] are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it.”

That would be price-earnings ratio, Mr. President, but then the economy was never your strong suit. (No, wait! That was supposed to be McCain.) And by long-term perspective, which millennia would you suggest?

Anyhow, how’s that investment advice working out for Mr. and Mrs. Investor?

Down 250 as I write.

I am reminded of the old E.F. Hutton commercials:

Obama dismisses the market as a “tracking poll”, full of “gyrations”. But I wonder if that’s how the hundreds of millions of Americans with money in the market see it? Trillions in wealth have been wiped off the books.

Will there be anyone left who makes more than 250k?

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Dead Cat Bounce

Definition here:

A temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, after which the market continues to fall.

[From the expression:] “Even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from high enough!”

Example here:

-207.49 (-3.02%)
Real-time: 11:34AM EST

The broader S&P index is also down over 3%.

That giant sucking sound is the market circling the drain.

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The 800 Billion Dollar Man [UPDATED]

You’d think with that kind of money he could get better hair plugs.

Allahpundit:

Just what a jittery America needs to restore confidence in the feds’ bailout management. Worried that Greasy Joe suddenly has an $800 billion line of credit and zero executive experience? Don’t be. The Obama business brain trust is right there behind him, willing and able to lend a hand.

That’s what we’re afraid of!!!

How have the markets reacted?

DJIA

VALUE 7,229.31
CHANGE -136.36
% CHANGE -1.85

S&P 500

VALUE 753.83
CHANGE -16.22
% CHANGE -2.11

Someone tell Tim Geithner not to say a word. It will be like an avalanche.

Maybe this is what Biden meant when he said Obama would be tested in his first six months and it might appear that he had made the wrong move. Check, and check.

UPDATE
Geithner! I thought I told you to shut up!

DJIA

VALUE 7,132.30
CHANGE -233.37
% CHANGE -3.17

S&P 500

VALUE 743.88
CHANGE -26.17
% CHANGE -3.4

The Dow stood at 8281 on Inauguration morning. It has fallen over a thousand point—about 14%—in a month. By Labor Day—how appropriate—we’ll all be broke.

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Sombody ‘Splain This

The House rejects the bailout, and the market climbs almost 500 points.

The Senate passes the bailout (stuffed with more pork than a Jimmy Dean sausage), and the market drops over 200.

I give up.

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Obama and the Stock Market

Ever wonder what impact an Obama Presidency would have on your 401(k)?

I’ve wondered but didn’t think that there was a way to quantify it. Wrong.

Obama’s Bear Market?
Are global investors anticipating a Barack Obama victory in November and the economic storm that his high-tax and antitrade policies would bring? That’s a convenient reading of the stock market’s recent behavior for Republicans, who have reason for wanting to deflect blame from George W. Bush and his Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. But we do know investors are forward-looking and the slide in the dollar and the fall in the market (despite decent corporate profits) have accelerated at the same pace as Mr. Obama’s meteoric political rise over the past nine months.

Now some smart analysts have decided to quantify the relationship. They find a definite inverse correlation between Mr. Obama’s probability of winning the election (as measured by the Intrade political futures market) and the ups and downs of the stock market. Intrade provides a trading market where investors can bet on who will win the election – such betting markets have a record of performing better than polls in forecasting election outcomes. University of Michigan Economist Mark Perry was perhaps the first to uncover the relationship between this Obama index and asset values. Radio host and fund manager Jerry Bowyer notes on CNBC.com that investors would have good reason for wanting to flee U.S. markets ahead of an Obama victory. Increases in capital gains and dividend taxes alone will “mean very large additional levies on investors.” Mr. Bowyer adds: “Of course, this affects stock prices. It is ludicrous to suggest that adding taxes directly on an asset class would have no effect on its value.”

Let me see if I understand this. Members of the “investor class” get taxed more heavily, so they pull their assets out of US markets? They assume that the new and large taxes will hurt business so they put their money in other, presumably safer places? Is that what this means?

So, in other words, when Obama wins and Pelosi and Reid raise our taxes, we will not only be poorer as a result of that, but our retirement accounts will also suffer?

I’m all about Change!! Spare change anyone?

- Aggie

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