Archive for Polls

One Nation, Underwhelmed

If opposition to ObamaCare is racist (what else could it be?), we’re all racists now.

Or 86% of us, anyway:

About one month after the new healthcare exchanges closed with over 8 million new enrollees, there has been little substantial change in Americans’ perception that the healthcare law has helped them. Most Americans say the law has had no impact on their healthcare situation, while those who do perceive an effect are more likely to say it has hurt them rather than helped them.

I include even those who claim no effect among the racists. How dare they dismiss the president’s signature achievement? And the 3% who had no answer: they were just hiding their blatant racism. Only 14% of you are truly enlightened. Shame on the rest of us.

If this display of cynicism leads me to early dementia… what was I saying?

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eraCamabO

The inverse of ObamaCare:

[G]iven its unpopularity, the question should be: How can Obamacare not be repealed?

What’s more, Republicans, as the party of limited government, not only have an obligation to repeal Obamacare but would benefit politically from doing so. More specifically, they would benefit politically from putting forward the alternative to Obamacare that is the key to achieving its full repeal.

Americans are eagerly awaiting such a conservative alternative. A recent poll by McLaughlin & Associates asked, “If the Republicans were to propose a new plan of their own to improve health care by repealing and replacing Obamacare would you be more or less likely to vote for a Republican for Congress?” By a margin of 31 percentage points (48 to 17 percent), likely voters said they’d be more, not less, inclined to back a Republican in that event. Moreover, that margin was at least 25 points among independents, Hispanics, those under 40, those who make less than $60,000, and women—groups the GOP is supposedly courting.

On the generic congressional ballot, the McLaughlin poll showed Republicans trailing Democrats by 2 points among likely voters—43 to 41 percent. But the poll also asked whether likely voters would be more apt to support for Congress a “Republican who wants to repeal and replace Obamacare” or a “Democrat who wants to keep and fix Obamacare.” By a tally of 47 to 43 percent, respondents picked the Republican—a 6-point swing in the GOP’s favor (from 2 points down to 4 points up). That swing from the generic congressional ballot was even greater among independents (13 points in the GOP’s favor), Hispanics (7 points), those who make under $60,000 (7 points), and women (8 points).

To repeat the question, how can ObamaCare not be repealed?

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Thirstradamus Strikes Again

I’d like to thank my family, and all the little people who made me possible.

Thirstradamus, April 18th:

[W]ith Obama doing a victory lap over the eight-millionth enrollee under ObamaCare (without any supporting evidence), how many of those 8,000,000 do you think were happy doing so? How many will remember the experience fondly? How many will remember it that way in November?

Okay, maybe I was citing someone else, maybe I was citing myself. Who remembers?

Thirstradamus also wrote this on April 1st:

They’ll trumpet this seven million [as it was then] as a celebration, a triumph. But all it really means is that five million, six hundred thousand—so far—had to go through the wringer thanks to an ill-conceived, wretchedly-implemented government program that didn’t have to be. The Democrats would have been better off with a smaller number, a much smaller number.

See you (wouldn’t want to be you) in November, chumps.

Washington Post, today (and, yes, I’m blushing):

Democrats face serious obstacles as they look to the November elections, with President Obama’s approval rating at a new low and a majority of voters saying they prefer a Congress in Republican hands to check the president’s agenda, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama’s approval rating fell to 41 percent, down from 46 percent through the first three months of the year and the lowest of his presidency in Post-ABC News polls. Just 42 percent approve of his handling of the economy, 37 percent approve of how he is handling the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and 34 percent approve of his handling of the situation involving Ukraine and Russia.

What’s my secret? How did I know that eight million people was the good news for us and bad news for them? Eight million people have eight million memories of getting the shaft (a horrible expression if you think about it, so don’t) eight million ways. The math ain’t that hard. Sorry to give away the trick.

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The Mouse That Roared

The title refers to a movie (based on a novel) in which the Grand Duchy of Fenwick (whence comes our formal name, Grand Duchy of Bloodthirstan) declares war on the United States. Expecting certain and immediate defeat, the Duchy expects to receive generous American largesse, a la the Marshall Plan. Defeat will never have been so profitable.

Barack Obama: the louse that roared.

With a record 20 percent of households on food stamps, former Florida Rep. Allen West says it’s time to stop saying President Barack Obama’s policies are failing.

They may be performing exactly as intended, he says.

West, a Republican, said he recently reread the Cloward-Piven strategy, proposed by two sociologists and political activists in 1966. The purpose of the strategy, offered to Democrats at the time, was to overload the welfare system so that people could be given “a guaranteed annual income and thus an end to poverty.”

Obama’s economic policies may be intended to do something similar, West hinted during a Wednesday appearance on Fox News Channel’s “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”

“We’re seeing an incredible growth of the welfare nanny state; we’re seeing the poverty rolls explode; we’re seeing the food stamp rolls explode; we’re seeing more dependency on government largesse and programs,” he said. “We’re seeing a desperation and a despondency out there that’s being created by this administration.”

Other Republicans have said Obama’s Affordable Care Act is intended not to work properly, but rather to fail so a single-payer, government-run system can be installed.

Untitled

Mission Accomplished

As President Obama starts his sixth year in office, his job ratings remain near record lows and more voters think his policies have hurt rather than helped the economy. And even as voters continue to hold mostly negative views on the economy and the direction of the country, a new Fox News poll finds they see some improvement.

A third of voters say they like both Obama and his policies — a dramatic drop from 47 percent who felt that way in October 2012. In addition, 62 percent now say they dislike the president’s policies, up from 51 percent the month before his re-election.

The recession ended less than six months into his term; we’ve enjoyed four and a half years of recovery; things seem no better, even if the unemployment rate has fallen steadily; Obama won reelection. I’m sorry, where has he failed?

Ninety-two million Americans aren’t working; one-fifth of families are on food stamps; the “47 percent” is probably now closer to 52 percent; private health care is kaput; our once-great nation has been turned into a population of paupers. In baseball that’s what you call a five-tool player.

Or just a tool.

PS: Like I was saying.

While the administration publicly expresses full confidence in its health care law, privately it fears one part of the system is so flawed it could bankrupt insurance companies and cripple ObamaCare itself.

All going according to plan:

“I happen to be a proponent of a single-payer health care plan. The United States of America–the wealthiest country in the history of the world, spending 14 percent–14 percent of its gross national product on health care and cannot provide basic health insurance to everybody….

A single payer health care credit–universal healthcare credit. That’s what I’d like to see, but as all of you know, we may not get there immediately. Because first we have to take back the White House and we’ve got to take back the Senate and we’ve got to take back the House.”

“[I]t’s not just politically but economically it is better for us to start getting a system in place–a universal healthcare system signed into law by the end of my first term as president and build off that system to further to make it more rational…”

“By the way, Canada did not start immediately with a single payer system. They had a similar transition step.”

The George Washington of USA-SSR.

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From Mm-Mm-Mm to WTF

By way of OMG:

Good lord. You know times are tough for The One when his big health-care stinkbomb actually starts smelling better to people the further removed from it he is.

Of course people like it better when you use a euphemism; calling it ObamaCare is like saying what sweetbreads really is (are). No one would touch it if they knew. Now, all we have to do is apply the Obama name to everything we don’t like and watch its popularity plummet. Like when the Red Sox play the New York Obamas next season, or why doesn’t Justin Biebama grow the [bleep] up.

This is the worst “upgrade” since New Coke. But at least they could go back to regular Coke. It wasn’t outlawed. And at least the government didn’t regulate the number of bubbles in the “junk, substandard” sodas from “Bad Apple” Soda Company.

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We Hate Him! We Really Hate Him!

America channels Sally Field:

As the U.S. heads toward a potential government shutdown or default, the public is more alienated from Washington than at any time since the aftermath of the 2011 downgrade of the nation’s credit rating.

President Barack Obama’s 47 percent favorability rating and the 34 percent positive reading for Republicans are the worst ever for both in the Bloomberg National Poll, which began in 2009. The 44 percent approval rating of the Democratic Party is at a two-year low.

Obama’s 45 percent job-approval rating is the lowest since September 2011, a month after a partisan showdown over lifting the debt ceiling brought the U.S. to the brink of default.

Americans also are pessimistic about the course of the country, with 68 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction, the most in two years, according to the poll of 1,000 adults conducted Sept. 20-23.

Two-thirds of the country are bummed out about ObamAmerica, and Ted Cruz is out of touch?!

The people hate ObamaCare, they hate his humiliation over Syria, they hate his preening self-regard, they hate his golf game. Only the unreconstructed socialists hold out hope. They shall fight in Whole Foods. They shall fight in Starbucks. They shall fight at the recycling center. They shall never surrender.

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What Was There First Clue?

Well, la-di-freakin’-da!

Palestinian Authority Arabs’ support for rocket fire by Gaza terrorists on southern Israel has fallen sharply over the past four months, according to a survey published Wednesday and reported by the AFP news agency.

“Support for firing locally-made rockets from the Gaza Strip towards Israeli regions has dropped,” a poll by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center said, indicating it had fallen to 38.4 percent, from 74 percent in December, just weeks after the end of a major confrontation with Israel.

Of 1,179 PA residents interviewed in Gaza and in Judea (Yehuda) and Samaria (Shomron), which are controlled by the rival Fatah faction, 60.2 percent said “military action” harmed Palestinian national interests.

And the percentage of people backing “military operations” against Israel, dropped from 50.9 to 31.1 percent from December to March.

Meanwhile, if elections were held today, 42.6 percent said they would vote for Fatah compared with 20.6 for Hamas, in what was an increase of several percentage points for Fatah at Hamas’s expense, since the November operation.

What do I think this means? Jack-[bleep]. But I’m reporting it anyway. The so-called Palestinians have never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity, as the saying goes, and I expect them to revert to form.

In sum, the missiles will begin falling shortly (as they only ceased falling a short time ago).

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Vox Arabia vs. Vox Americana

Arabs and Americans are singing different tunes:

It’s all about popular!
It’s not about aptitude
It’s the way you’re viewed
So it’s very shrewd to be
Very very popular
Like me!

The results of the recent Gaza conflict prove that armed struggle, as adopted by Hamas, is the best means of achieving Palestinian independence

Strongly agree 55.6%
Agree 32.1%
Disagree 9.1%
Strongly disagree 1.2%
Don’t know 2.1%

In the wake of the UN initiative and the Gaza conflict, would you say
that your view of the following parties/leaders has improved or diminished?

Hamas
Improved 60.0%
Somewhat improved 28.5%
Diminished 7.1%
Somewhat diminished 1.3%
Don’t know 3.1%

The confrontation and the resulting truce represent a victory for Palestinians

Strongly agree 57.5%
Agree 32.2%
Disagree 8.5%
Strongly disagree 1.3%
Don’t know 0.5%

Nearly nine out of every ten Arabs in this poll approve of Ham’ass’ tactics, and think they “won” the recent Pillar of Defense battle.

Okay.

How about Americans?

Only 10 percent of Americans sympathize with the Palestinian Authority, according to a new Pew Center poll, which shows that the United States public is also going isolationist.

In answer to the question, “In the dispute between Israel and the Palestinians, which side do you sympathize with more, Israel or the Palestinians?” 50 percent identified with Israeli and only 10 percent with the Arabs.

Probing a little further:

The overwhelming support for Israel in the poll was more prominent among Republicans and evangelical Christians,

“Conservative Republicans maintain strong support for Israel with fully 75% saying they sympathize with Israel compared with just 2% who sympathize with the Palestinians,” Pew reported.

“By contrast, liberal Democrats are much more divided: 33% sympathize more with Israel, 22% with the Palestinians. Independents sympathize more with Israel by a 47% to 13% margin.

“Among religious groups, white evangelical Protestants remain strongly supportive of Israel. Two-thirds (67%) say they sympathize more with Israel; only 5% say they sympathize more with the Palestinians.

“Opinion among other religious groups is more mixed. Catholics, for example, offer more sympathy for Israel than the Palestinians by a 44% to 11% margin.”

If the Arabs who support Ham’ass are looking for love here in the US, they would do well to concentrate on liberal Democrats. But then, they already do. To give credit to the moonbats, however, even they break more for Israel than for the supporters of Ham’ass. Barely.

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Who’s Gonna Win?

I’m superstitious, but I have to report what I read.

The predictions are coming in:

[W]hat follows is a prediction based on my interpretation of the lay of the land. I know others see it differently–and they could very well be right, and I could be wrong.

I think Mitt Romney is likely to win next Tuesday.

For two reasons:

(1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again.

(2) Romney leads among independents.

He elaborates, but that’s his point. When you consider that most state and national polls assume greater Democrat turnout, when Republicans have at least caught up in party identification, if they’re not outright ahead, it’s hard to avoid thinking that seemingly close state polls are leaning toward Romney.

Including this one:

There are many reasons why Obama will lose this election — by a lot — on Tuesday. But when the history of this contest is written, it will be especially important to probe why Obama blundered by virtually ignoring Pennsylvania.

Team Obama was so focused on the swing states that they ignored the semi-swing states which could come into play. Ohio, Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada loomed so large in their calculations that they forgot about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota.

Obama’s static dependence on the swing states to constitute a firewall backfired. The firewall became like the French Maginot Line of 1940, easily outflanked. When Romney began to buy ads in the semi-swing states, Obama was slow to respond.

Initially, his campaign dismissed Romney’s ads in Pennsylvania as a bluff intended to draw Obama’s resources away from Ohio. But it was no bluff. Romney’s people realized that 20 votes in Pennsylvania were as good as 18 in Ohio.

And, in this final week, Romney’s campaign and its allied groups are spending $11 million on Pennsylvania ads as opposed to only $2 million for Obama.

That’s Dick Morris, not exactly an unbiased observer. Either way, we’ll know by Wednesday morning, if not Tuesday night.

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Poll Dancing

Look, I’m as happy as anyone that Romney is leading by four points in Rasmussen and by five in Gallup.

But if he doesn’t win the damn Electoral College, what the [bleep] good is it going to do him? (And no, I’m not calling for the abolition of the Electoral College.)

In the current tracking poll, Gallup finds the ten-point advantage for Democrats has now turned into a one-point Republican advantage. The current party breakdown is now 35 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents. And just in like 2008, that one-point advantage increases when independents are asked which party they typically lean to, with 49 percent identifying as Republicans and 46 percent Democrats. That number backs up the trends in other polling showing Romney leading among independents by large margins.

But here’s why you can feel the panic emanating from Chicago: Romney is currently doing better with independents than Obama did in 2008. Obama won independents by eight, in 2008 while Romney is currently leading by 10.6 points on average. If the independent numbers are entered in to the 2008 results, Romney would have a victory of over four points. Even if Romney does not take any more crossover votes (Democrats who vote Republican and vice versa) than McCain got in 2008, he would still win by over four points on Election Day.

Just like Gallup, Rasmussen runs a daily tracking poll with about 1,500 respondents included in the partisan affiliation breakdown. In 2008 Rasmussen found Democrats with a 7.1 percentage point advantage in turnout, which was a perfect prediction of the Democratic turnout margin on Election Day. In September of 2012, Rasmussen has Republicans now edging Democrats by 2.6 percent, with a split of 34 percent Democrats, 37 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents.

Yeah, but what about Ohio? What about Nevada? New Hampshire? Wisconsin?

If these polls are accurate and Romney captures a popular-vote win of four to six points, there is no chance he could lose the Electoral College. In fact, that type of victory would likely yield Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and possibly even some blue states such as Michigan or Minnesota. Overall it would be almost like 2008 in reverse, with Romney taking states many thought would be impossible a month ago.

I suppose that has to be true. I believe most of the state polls are over-sampling Democrats. Polls showing a tie or a point or two in Obama’s favor might actually tilt Romney. He’s leading among Independents, and he’s leading in voter enthusiasm.

But he’s still got to take Ohio—or a reasonable facsimile thereof. Maybe we’ll all wake up on the 7th and laugh at how easy it was. Here’s hoping.

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Mark Steyn

Not that Steyn isn’t everywhere these days, but he was on local scribe Howie Carr’s radio show yesterday. It’s about a half an hour.

In a related story:

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-46) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge…

He (Dick Morris) explains why.

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Media Crusaders

My personal jihad against the American media continues. Until they stop lying, slanting, deceiving, and cheerleading, I will persist in flying metaphorical planes into CBS, New York Times, NPR, et al headquarters.

On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Friday, NBC White House correspondent and MSNBC “The Daily Rundown” host Chuck Todd more-or-less predicted that President Barack Obama would win Florida in November, citing the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that gives Obama a five-point edge over Republican candidate Mitt Romney in that state.

Rasmussen Reports President Scott Rasmussen, however, said Todd’s projection was premature.

In an appearance on Laura Ingraham’s radio show Friday, Rasmussen said the state is hardly “off the map,” especially given the timing of the poll, which was immediately after the Democratic National Convention but before this week’s turmoil in the Middle East.

“It is inaccurate to say Florida is off the map,” he continued. “The problem the president has in Florida starts with his health care law. Seniors are more opposed to that law than anybody else. It is a state that is very close in polling and fundamentally is leaning a little bit Republican. Don’t know where it is going to go. It’s clearly a toss-up.

“If somebody tells you they know how this is going to turn out, they’re either lying to you or deluding themselves,” said Rasmussen. “It is too close to call. Both campaigns have weaknesses.”

Rasmussen agrees that Romney has to win Florida to win the election. And probably both Ohio and Virgina. Rasmussen’s tracking poll of likely voters has Romney up by two nationally, but down by two in Florida and down by one in Ohio and Virginia.

All of which is to say that the race is fluid and too close to call—and that there are lies, damned lies, and the mainstream media.

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