Archive for Polls

Most Respected Nation Watch

“People don’t remember — when I came into office, the United States in world opinion ranked below China and just barely above Russia. And today, once again, the United States is the most respected country on Earth.”


Four million current and former federal employees, from nearly every government agency, might have had their personal information stolen by Chinese hackers, U.S. investigators said.

U.S. officials believe this could be the biggest breach ever of the government’s computer networks. China called the allegation irresponsible.

Because “Earth” isn’t really showing us much respect:

Since when did a country’s lawful action in its own territory merit reproach?

Key figures, some unrelated to South China Sea disputes, have expressed opinions accusing China of impairing navigational freedom, speculating that China’s island construction is for military purposes and, most outrageously, comparing China to Nazi Germany.

While addressing a seminar in the Republic of Korea, US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel said China’s behavior raises the question:”What kind of a power does China seek to become?”

It is ironic to see the question coming from an American official.

China’s position on the South China Sea has not and will not change. As vice foreign minister Liu Zhenmin noted, China is a staunch proponent of peace and stability in the South China Sea, and is committed to resolving disputes through negotiation with directly concerned countries.

This is respect?

Top U.S. defense officials and diplomats are gathering in Stuttgart, Germany, Friday to discuss how to counter Russian military actions in Ukraine and address concerns among allies about Moscow’s aggression, following an upsurge of fighting between the Ukrainian military and Russia-backed rebels.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest acknowledged Thursday that economic pressure has not yet resulted in Russian President Vladimir Putin changing his “strategic calculus inside Ukraine.”

That isn’t “calculus” Putin’s doing in Ukraine, it’s division and addition.

We’ve amply covered Iran’s demonstrations of “respect” toward the US. Do you think Saudi Arabia respects us as they place an order for nukes from You think Germany respects us when we correct Angela Merkel’s grammar on her cell phone calls? Mexico respects us as they export their underclass across the Rio Grande? Canada respects us as we can’t make a decision on an oil pipeline? Israel respects us when its prime minister has to come over and explain the facts of life to our vain, callow president?

Where does Obama get this stuff?

Germany, China, Russia, the EU: talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations!

But look at the chart. US popularity peaked with Obama’s coronation. And that movement peaked with his receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize barely eight months after taking office. It’s been mostly downhill ever since, as the world has discovered what America discovered: to know him is to not like him all that much.


Pollsters Seeing—and Turning—Red

Democrats don’t get to eat fried chicken (it’s back on the kale for you!), but pollsters will be eating crow:

The pre-election polling averages (not the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, which also account for other factors) in the 10 most competitive Senate races had a 6-percentage point Democratic bias as compared to the votes counted in each state so far.

We aren’t counting Alaska, where polls haven’t closed yet. We also aren’t counting Virginia, which is much closer than expected. But Mark Warner’s close call makes more sense now given the margins we’re seeing in other states.

The bias might narrow slightly as more votes are counted; late-counted votes tend to be Democratic in most states. Still, this is a big “skew,” and it comes on the heels of what had been a fairly substantial bias in the opposite direction in 2012. The polls — excepting Ann Selzer’s — are having some problems.

That’s the Senate.

How about among the governors?

As I wrote before, polls in the most competitive Senate races look to have had about a 6-percentage point Democratic bias based on the votes as counted so far.

What about in the most competitive gubernatorial races (excluding Alaska, which has not yet finished voting)?

The bias hasn’t been quite as bad, but the polls were still too Democratic-leaning by an average of about 2 percentage points. As a result, a number of Democrats who had narrow leads in the polls are going to lose their races.



BTL’s Midterm Prognostication

Like Carnac the Magnificent, I can see the future.

Unlike Carnac, I do not need a turban or an envelope.

The news will do:

Angry and frustrated voters are planning to use the midterm elections in one month to tell President Obama they oppose his agenda, the highest “no vote” percentage in the last 16 years measured by Gallup.

The polling outfit found that 32 percent of voters want to send a message of opposition with their vote, compared to just 20 percent who are sending a signal of support.

That is 13 points higher than in 1998 when former President Clinton was headed to impeachment for lying about his sex affair with a former White House intern and even a smidge higher — 2 points — than in 2008, when Americans were tired of President Bush’s military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Obama is more hated, more detested, than a philanderer and a war criminal. Armed with that information (such hate speech, BTL!), let’s look at the map:


And polling of the closest races:


RCP averages several polls, some out of date, but let’s use these numbers. My point is that the pall of Obama is so long and dark (dog whistle!), any race (dog whistle!) in which a Republican is within four points (maybe five) is statistically tied. If I’m right, the GOP will pick up as many as 9 out of ten seats, and hold a 54-46 edge in the Senate. They’ll certainly keep, probably widen, their lead in the House.

I’ve thought this since ObamaCare self-destructed, but who even remembers ObamaCare (for the moment)? Border security and the walking dead (from Liberia) may have shot to the top of Obama’s Incompetence Chart. And his promise of amnesty for illegal aliens can’t be far from voters’ minds.

But so what? What will the Republicans do with their majority? God knows, there’s a lot they can do (or undo), but do they have the will, the nerve, even the intent to push back against Obama’s overreach? 2016 will have to wait; the Democrats are going down—have to go down—this year.


Do Numbers Lie?

Do voters? Do pollsters?

We’ll see:

If this week’s polling is any evidence, Democrats are facing an even tougher road come November. With President Obama’s approval sinking below former president George W. Bush’s, the latest Fox News poll finds Republicans hold the advantage as they seek to reclaim the Senate. In states with active U.S. Senate races, likely voters say they would back the Republican a 9-point margin. And when looking at the results in just the 14 Fox News battleground states the GOP edge widens to 18-point margin. Fox News: “The president recently claimed that ‘by almost every measure’ the nation’s economy and American workers are better off now than when he took office. Voters dismiss his boast as ‘mostly false’ by a 58-36 percent margin. That includes 37 percent of Democrats who think it doesn’t ring true.”

[The battleground list: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, South Dakota and West Virginia]

The better question would be: does Obama lie? A 22-point margin says he does. Which might explain this troubling (to Democrats) stat:

Women surveyed [in the WaPo/ABC News poll] said they disapprove of [President Obama ] by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin — nearing an all-time low in the poll. It’s almost the reverse of the 55 percent to 44 percent breakdown for Obama among female voters in 2012, according to exit polls…His approval rating among women has slipped four percentage points from a year ago and 16 points since his second inaugural in January 2013, when his approval was 60 percent among the group.

Dames don’t dig Obama the way they used to. Again, I have to wonder if some of these stories aren’t connected:

The White House this week assured anxious Hispanic lawmakers on Capitol Hill that President Obama will use executive action before the holiday season closes to reform U.S. immigration law, after breaking his pledge to make changes by the end of summer.

Roughly 11 million people are now living in the U.S. illegally.

Voters have been warned, and if the numbers are close to accurate, voters are taking the warning seriously. Here’s hoping Republican legislators are.

Comments (1)

That’s So Gay

An offensive expression, I’m told, but I don’t know why.

Gay means very, very small:

The National Health Interview Survey by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which is the federal government’s most relied upon estimate of the nation’s health and behaviors, found that fewer than 3% of respondents self-identified as gay, lesbian, or bisexual. Only 1.6% of respondents self-identified as gay or lesbian, and even less, 0.7%, self-identified as bisexual.

The estimate of the percentage of bisexuals was lower than the 2008 General Social Survey, which estimated that number at 1.1 percent, while other surveys have intimated that the percentage of bisexuals is the same as gays.

Conversely, 96.6% self-identified as straight, while 1.1% answered, “I don’t know the answer” or stated they were “something else.”

And they didn’t ask a follow up question???

Gay people are upset:

Gay leaders are expressing alarm at the just-released numbers from the Center for Disease Control that place the percentage of Americans identifying as homosexual at only 1.6% of the adult population.

Anyhow, I would have thought the number was larger, but I didn’t ask 35,000 people.

The CDC defends its survey, explaining the current survey polled 35,000 adults. The CDC’s National Center on Health Statistics told the Washington Post they “conducted rigorous tests to come up with the questions and interview method. They conducted more than 100 in-depth interviews—far more than is typical—and did three field tests, including one in which they experimented with a more private interview method that allowed respondents to listen to questions using headphones and type their answers into a computer.” James Dahlhamer, a health statistician with the CDC, told the Post there was no difference in the results using the two methods.

Like I said, I might have supposed the percentage was larger, but what do I know?

But get a load of what really makes the gay lobby angry:

Scout, who goes by one name, a spokesman for CenterLink’s Network of LGBT Health Equity, told the Washington Post, “The truth is, numbers matter, and political influence matters.”

Ellyn Ruthstrom, president of the Bi-Sexual Resource Center in Boston, said, “It’s just going to make it harder for us when we’re going out and talking to people about the bisexual population. We have a real hard time already with people not taking the bisexual identity seriously.”

“Political influence”? “Taking the bisexual identity seriously”? I don’t care what the number is, but I believe there is a number. And I believe it is derived by methods a lot closer to the CDC’s than to “Scout”‘s or the Bi-SexResoC’s. May I suggest that if you wish to be taken seriously, you act seriously.


What Do Americans Know That Their Leaders Don’t Know?


Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe there is a global conflict between the Muslim world and Western civilization. Seventeen percent (17%) disagree, but 24% are not sure. These findings are consistent with earlier surveying.

Count me, and any sentient being, among the 59%. If you asked that question in the Muslim world I’m certain the percentage who agreed would be even higher. In any continent not covered with an ice sheet there is a significant, often bloody, conflict between the Muslim world and Western civilization (dare I write just civilization).

Among our other insights:

Many hoped that the “Arab Spring” protests that began three years ago would lead to a new era of democracy in a number of Islamic countries, but U.S. voters now see that as increasingly unlikely and think the changes there have been bad for America.

[J]ust 27% of Likely U.S. Voters now believe the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror. That’s down eight points from 35% in April and 47% a year ago.

[J]ust 44% now think the United States is too involved in the Middle East, down from 54% last October. Twenty-one percent (21%) say we are not involved enough in that region, an 11-point jump from 10% in the last survey.

Considering what counts for “involvement” with the Obama regime, I’m afraid I can’t agree with my countrymen. Butt out of Israeli affairs. Let them win.


One Nation, Underwhelmed

If opposition to ObamaCare is racist (what else could it be?), we’re all racists now.

Or 86% of us, anyway:

About one month after the new healthcare exchanges closed with over 8 million new enrollees, there has been little substantial change in Americans’ perception that the healthcare law has helped them. Most Americans say the law has had no impact on their healthcare situation, while those who do perceive an effect are more likely to say it has hurt them rather than helped them.

I include even those who claim no effect among the racists. How dare they dismiss the president’s signature achievement? And the 3% who had no answer: they were just hiding their blatant racism. Only 14% of you are truly enlightened. Shame on the rest of us.

If this display of cynicism leads me to early dementia… what was I saying?



The inverse of ObamaCare:

[G]iven its unpopularity, the question should be: How can Obamacare not be repealed?

What’s more, Republicans, as the party of limited government, not only have an obligation to repeal Obamacare but would benefit politically from doing so. More specifically, they would benefit politically from putting forward the alternative to Obamacare that is the key to achieving its full repeal.

Americans are eagerly awaiting such a conservative alternative. A recent poll by McLaughlin & Associates asked, “If the Republicans were to propose a new plan of their own to improve health care by repealing and replacing Obamacare would you be more or less likely to vote for a Republican for Congress?” By a margin of 31 percentage points (48 to 17 percent), likely voters said they’d be more, not less, inclined to back a Republican in that event. Moreover, that margin was at least 25 points among independents, Hispanics, those under 40, those who make less than $60,000, and women—groups the GOP is supposedly courting.

On the generic congressional ballot, the McLaughlin poll showed Republicans trailing Democrats by 2 points among likely voters—43 to 41 percent. But the poll also asked whether likely voters would be more apt to support for Congress a “Republican who wants to repeal and replace Obamacare” or a “Democrat who wants to keep and fix Obamacare.” By a tally of 47 to 43 percent, respondents picked the Republican—a 6-point swing in the GOP’s favor (from 2 points down to 4 points up). That swing from the generic congressional ballot was even greater among independents (13 points in the GOP’s favor), Hispanics (7 points), those who make under $60,000 (7 points), and women (8 points).

To repeat the question, how can ObamaCare not be repealed?


Thirstradamus Strikes Again

I’d like to thank my family, and all the little people who made me possible.

Thirstradamus, April 18th:

[W]ith Obama doing a victory lap over the eight-millionth enrollee under ObamaCare (without any supporting evidence), how many of those 8,000,000 do you think were happy doing so? How many will remember the experience fondly? How many will remember it that way in November?

Okay, maybe I was citing someone else, maybe I was citing myself. Who remembers?

Thirstradamus also wrote this on April 1st:

They’ll trumpet this seven million [as it was then] as a celebration, a triumph. But all it really means is that five million, six hundred thousand—so far—had to go through the wringer thanks to an ill-conceived, wretchedly-implemented government program that didn’t have to be. The Democrats would have been better off with a smaller number, a much smaller number.

See you (wouldn’t want to be you) in November, chumps.

Washington Post, today (and, yes, I’m blushing):

Democrats face serious obstacles as they look to the November elections, with President Obama’s approval rating at a new low and a majority of voters saying they prefer a Congress in Republican hands to check the president’s agenda, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama’s approval rating fell to 41 percent, down from 46 percent through the first three months of the year and the lowest of his presidency in Post-ABC News polls. Just 42 percent approve of his handling of the economy, 37 percent approve of how he is handling the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and 34 percent approve of his handling of the situation involving Ukraine and Russia.

What’s my secret? How did I know that eight million people was the good news for us and bad news for them? Eight million people have eight million memories of getting the shaft (a horrible expression if you think about it, so don’t) eight million ways. The math ain’t that hard. Sorry to give away the trick.


The Mouse That Roared

The title refers to a movie (based on a novel) in which the Grand Duchy of Fenwick (whence comes our formal name, Grand Duchy of Bloodthirstan) declares war on the United States. Expecting certain and immediate defeat, the Duchy expects to receive generous American largesse, a la the Marshall Plan. Defeat will never have been so profitable.

Barack Obama: the louse that roared.

With a record 20 percent of households on food stamps, former Florida Rep. Allen West says it’s time to stop saying President Barack Obama’s policies are failing.

They may be performing exactly as intended, he says.

West, a Republican, said he recently reread the Cloward-Piven strategy, proposed by two sociologists and political activists in 1966. The purpose of the strategy, offered to Democrats at the time, was to overload the welfare system so that people could be given “a guaranteed annual income and thus an end to poverty.”

Obama’s economic policies may be intended to do something similar, West hinted during a Wednesday appearance on Fox News Channel’s “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”

“We’re seeing an incredible growth of the welfare nanny state; we’re seeing the poverty rolls explode; we’re seeing the food stamp rolls explode; we’re seeing more dependency on government largesse and programs,” he said. “We’re seeing a desperation and a despondency out there that’s being created by this administration.”

Other Republicans have said Obama’s Affordable Care Act is intended not to work properly, but rather to fail so a single-payer, government-run system can be installed.


Mission Accomplished

As President Obama starts his sixth year in office, his job ratings remain near record lows and more voters think his policies have hurt rather than helped the economy. And even as voters continue to hold mostly negative views on the economy and the direction of the country, a new Fox News poll finds they see some improvement.

A third of voters say they like both Obama and his policies — a dramatic drop from 47 percent who felt that way in October 2012. In addition, 62 percent now say they dislike the president’s policies, up from 51 percent the month before his re-election.

The recession ended less than six months into his term; we’ve enjoyed four and a half years of recovery; things seem no better, even if the unemployment rate has fallen steadily; Obama won reelection. I’m sorry, where has he failed?

Ninety-two million Americans aren’t working; one-fifth of families are on food stamps; the “47 percent” is probably now closer to 52 percent; private health care is kaput; our once-great nation has been turned into a population of paupers. In baseball that’s what you call a five-tool player.

Or just a tool.

PS: Like I was saying.

While the administration publicly expresses full confidence in its health care law, privately it fears one part of the system is so flawed it could bankrupt insurance companies and cripple ObamaCare itself.

All going according to plan:

“I happen to be a proponent of a single-payer health care plan. The United States of America–the wealthiest country in the history of the world, spending 14 percent–14 percent of its gross national product on health care and cannot provide basic health insurance to everybody….

A single payer health care credit–universal healthcare credit. That’s what I’d like to see, but as all of you know, we may not get there immediately. Because first we have to take back the White House and we’ve got to take back the Senate and we’ve got to take back the House.”

“[I]t’s not just politically but economically it is better for us to start getting a system in place–a universal healthcare system signed into law by the end of my first term as president and build off that system to further to make it more rational…”

“By the way, Canada did not start immediately with a single payer system. They had a similar transition step.”

The George Washington of USA-SSR.


From Mm-Mm-Mm to WTF

By way of OMG:

Good lord. You know times are tough for The One when his big health-care stinkbomb actually starts smelling better to people the further removed from it he is.

Of course people like it better when you use a euphemism; calling it ObamaCare is like saying what sweetbreads really is (are). No one would touch it if they knew. Now, all we have to do is apply the Obama name to everything we don’t like and watch its popularity plummet. Like when the Red Sox play the New York Obamas next season, or why doesn’t Justin Biebama grow the [bleep] up.

This is the worst “upgrade” since New Coke. But at least they could go back to regular Coke. It wasn’t outlawed. And at least the government didn’t regulate the number of bubbles in the “junk, substandard” sodas from “Bad Apple” Soda Company.


We Hate Him! We Really Hate Him!

America channels Sally Field:

As the U.S. heads toward a potential government shutdown or default, the public is more alienated from Washington than at any time since the aftermath of the 2011 downgrade of the nation’s credit rating.

President Barack Obama’s 47 percent favorability rating and the 34 percent positive reading for Republicans are the worst ever for both in the Bloomberg National Poll, which began in 2009. The 44 percent approval rating of the Democratic Party is at a two-year low.

Obama’s 45 percent job-approval rating is the lowest since September 2011, a month after a partisan showdown over lifting the debt ceiling brought the U.S. to the brink of default.

Americans also are pessimistic about the course of the country, with 68 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction, the most in two years, according to the poll of 1,000 adults conducted Sept. 20-23.

Two-thirds of the country are bummed out about ObamAmerica, and Ted Cruz is out of touch?!

The people hate ObamaCare, they hate his humiliation over Syria, they hate his preening self-regard, they hate his golf game. Only the unreconstructed socialists hold out hope. They shall fight in Whole Foods. They shall fight in Starbucks. They shall fight at the recycling center. They shall never surrender.


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