Why We Suck
While eagerly waiting Aggie’s next installment of “It’s Unexpected!”™, let’s revisit exactly why unemployment numbers are so “unexpectedly” high (and, no it’s not because the economy is racist):
[S]ince deep recessions are generally followed by more robust recoveries, this should have been one of the strongest recoveries ever.
So what went wrong? All the available Keynesian levers for achieving economic growth have been pulled, yet the recovery is one of the weakest since World War II. The problem lies with the way the “stimulus” was carried out, the uncertainty of looming higher taxes, and the antibusiness rhetoric and regulatory strong-arming of this administration.
First, exactly how weak has this recovery been? The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis tracks economic performance for each recovery and compares gross-domestic-product growth and job growth, the two most important indicators of economic performance. Over the past 60 years, there have been 11 recessions and 11 recoveries.
Sadly, this recovery is near the bottom of all 11. Cumulative nonfarm job growth is just 1.9% 34 months into recovery, the ninth-worst performance and well below the average job growth of 6.5%. Cumulative GDP growth is just 6.8% 11 quarters into this recovery, less than half the average (15.2%) and the worst of all 11.
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[W]e borrowed $5 trillion, for which we will pay interest for who knows how long, in order to stimulate the economy now.
There’s little doubt that this level of spending—$5 trillion in an economy with an annual GDP of about $15 trillion—has a temporary stimulative effect. The question is, was it a good investment? For the most part the money was spent poorly and we will get very little future value from it. Billions were spent to reward favored constituencies like government employees and the auto industry. Billions more were spent on training programs that don’t work and unemployment insurance that reduces incentives to actually find work. Little went toward building infrastructure or other assets that will help the nation create wealth over time.
This is what Rush told us: the stimulus was a slush fund. It had nothing to do with “investment”. That’s why we hear voices calling for more of the same—because so few dollars were actually directed toward the creation of wealth (preferring to “spread” it instead).
[F]or rational people to spend or invest requires confidence in the future. The “animal spirits” so necessary for a true recovery have been dampened by this administration’s policies and rhetoric.
Indeed, this administration has been overtly hostile to business across the economy except for progressive favorites like electric cars or wind and solar power. It has tightened regulatory screws on the coal industry and all other fossil-fuel providers, enacted health-care “reform” based on false estimates of its likely costs and effects, unleashed a hostile National Labor Relations Board on businesses, and passed financial regulations in the form of Dodd-Frank along with hundreds of other regulatory actions that put increased burdens on the private sector. Meanwhile, the president has yet to pass a budget or announce a plan to rein in government expenditures.
The president has said, over and over again, that he wants to increase taxes on businesses—small and large—and on financially successful individuals. He doesn’t quite articulate the point that way, but that is the effect. After all, he says millionaires and billionaires aren’t paying their fair share. He forgets, or simply does not know, that the top 1% of earners actually pay as much as the bottom 90%, and the bottom half pay no income taxes at all.
In this negative environment, businesses are less willing to invest in the future, and individuals are less willing to spend what they can. Meanwhile, savers and retirees have seen much of their income decline because of low interest rates. The massive costs of all the stimulus have been wasted because of the heavy counterweight put on the economy by the administration’s antibusiness and pro-redistribution policies.
So, it’s as we’ve been saying: this “recovery” is all Obama. He owns it. And Mitt Romney better not let him forget it.




