Map ReQuest
What I want to know is: how do I get here?
Ed Morrissey:
I think John McCain will win a squeaker over Barack Obama, 273-265, by holding Florida, Nevada, and adding Pennsylvania as a trade for Virginia….
Note that I leave Minnesota in the blue column today, despite the virtual dead heat Survey USA shows in its final polling. As Jazz Shaw and James Joyner note, the RCP average shows Obama significantly ahead, but they include the Strib’s MinnPoll that routinely overstates Democratic strength. The same poll has Al Franken ahead of Norm Coleman by four points. Because of its structure, the RCP average lags on movement, and Survey USA shows some movement towards Republicans here — but I don’t think this is the election that moves Minnesota to the red column after 36 years of going blue.
I don’t think this is the election that puts Florida in the blue column, either, or Nevada. Early-vote polling didn’t show enough of an advantage for Obama, and now Republicans will make up the majority of poll-goers in both states. It really comes down to Virginia and Pennsylvania, and a split can favor either candidate. I think Pennsylvania has a real shot at going red, and Virginia’s a toss-up at this point.
I could quibble with a state here, a state there—but who among us would not deliriously accept this outcome?
I note the latest national polls show McCain’s surge to have stalled (nothing’s closer than 5 points), but the latest state poll developments lean against Obama (in Virginia, Minnesota, and Ohio).
A McCain victory at this point would have to mean either or both of the following: that the few people who are still undecided will vote for McCain because the Obama Tsunami just couldn’t budge them; and that there are pockets of support (Palin-o-philes mostly) who are not adequately represented in the polling samples. I can see those demographics making the difference on Election Day.
Of course, I can also see a President Obama. Yech.