“A Jobless Recovery”
Is that anything like Erica Jong’s “zipless f**k” from Fear of Flying?
I have to admit I never got the z-less f (”got” as in “understood”); the jobless recovery is another oxymoron I don’t get:
Many of Massachusetts’ key industries have begun to rebound along with the broader economy, increasing sales and production, but hiring only cautiously - if at all.
That caution is contributing to what is almost certain to be another jobless recovery in Massachusetts and elsewhere, a pattern that has marked economic turnarounds since the early 1990s. Even though the economy is expanding, it is not growing fast enough to generate jobs and reduce unemployment in the state, already at its highest level since the 1970s.
Over the next year, economic activity in Massachusetts will increase more than 2 percent, slightly faster than in the nation as a whole, but employers here will still slice 37,000 more jobs, according to forecasts by Moody’s Economy.com, a research firm in West Chester, Pa. That job loss, while significant, is less than the projected rate nationwide.
That’s a great slogan. “Massachusetts: It Could Be Worse”
“We’re at the bottom, and it looks like we’re going to bounce along the bottom,’’ said Michael Goodman, eco nomic analyst and professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth. “It’s going to be a long, hard slog.’’
…
Ultimately, Rosengren said, the state’s expansion will depend on whether the US economy can transition to a self-sustaining recovery from one fueled by stimulus programs. “The question is what happens when these programs go away,’’ Rosengren said. “To what extent is the private sector going to pick up activity as the government sector pulls back?’’
…
Such caution is among the reasons economists expect a jobless recovery lasting into next year. Another reason: Many companies cut employee hours to avoid layoffs, so as business picks up, they are likely to increase hours before hiring new workers.
At the same time, firms are boosting productivity, or getting more production from existing workers. In the second quarter of this year, productivity jumped 6.6 percent nationally, according to the Labor Department, more than triple the historical average.
“Overall, there’s a lack of confidence,’’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “Businesses are curtailing their layoffs, but they’re not hiring.’’
Let me see if I have this straight: stimulus money didn’t boost private investment, it merely replaced it. And it appears it had no carryover effect. And private firms are making do with what employees they still have.
That’s your economic brain trust at work. Timmy Geithner’s motto: why pay taxes when you can just raise them for everyone else?
I don’t know about “zipless”, but we’re sure f**ked.
PS: Rasmussen says only 1/3 of Americans polled think the stimulus helped the economy. As awful as that number is for the president’s number on domestic initiative, I do have to wonder if the decriminalization of medical marijuana is such a good idea. A good number of us already appear to be wasted.